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Captainless America: Civil War
Hola libertinus!
Here in the US, our gerontocracy is nosediving into irrelevance faster than you can say "cognitive decline." With our oldest-ever president stumbling through another “big boy” press conference while political polarization reaches new all-time highs, it's no wonder folks are looking for a lifeboat.
Today, we dive into Ray Dalio's dire warnings of impending civil war, why inflation-battered Argentinians are turning to crypto (but not how you might think), and how a Bill Gates-backed startup wants you to eat your carbon emissions. Oh, and before we sign off, we’ll have a little fun pondering “medieval” power plays and what they mean for us today.
Buckle up.
📰 DISPATCHES
Why Inflation Battered Argentinians Are Turning To Crypto
“Argentina’s crypto adoption is higher as a percentage of its global population than any other country in the Western hemisphere. Of 130 million visitors to 55 of the largest exchanges worldwide–a proxy for usage–2.5 million came from Argentina, a Forbes study with SimilarWeb analytics firm data found.” (Forbes)
The True Value of Bitcoin
I like Bitcoin.
I like that, similar to gold, there is no counterparty risk.
I like that it can be easily stored on a hardware wallet the size of a thumb drive and taken with you anywhere in the world.
I also like the freedom-first ethos of the Bitcoin community.
But what I really like about Bitcoin is its volatility as an asset.
Specifically, I like when that volatility goes up and my net worth increases as a result.
Bitcoiners believe that Bitcoin offers an off-ramp from the fiat system, and envision a world where the price of goods and services are denominated in Bitcoin.
Hyperbitcoinization, bro!
But this poses problems.
One of the things I like about Bitcoin is its volatility, but that doesn't make it very good for buying things.
Think about it—if the value of Bitcoin fluctuates 10% over the course of a day, do you then have to constantly reprice your goods and services on a minute-by-minute basis?
Alternatively, if you just want to store value in Bitcoin, what good does it do if the price tanks by the time you actually want to make purchases with your Bitcoin?
Is Bitcoin even an "exit from the fiat system" at all?
Let's look at how it operates in the wild by looking at a country with its fair share of money problems: Argentina.
Argentina is synonymous with inflation, and now has the highest rate of crypto adoption in the Western Hemisphere.
See, Bitcoin does provide an exit from the fiat system, Argentina is case in point! Right?
Well, not so much.
OK, they must prefer one of the other top crypto projects that offers more utility, like Ethereum or Solana then, right?
Eh, not quite.
Oh, Argentinians are aping into meme coins like Doge and Shiba Inu Coin?
Nope.
Tether's USDT, a dollar-equivalent stable coin, holds the title of preferred crypto in Argentina.
What? They exited one fiat system just to enter another?
Yes.
You see, people who have actually suffered from the ravages of inflation aren't trying to speculate in the hopes of trying to make it big.
They are trying to solve for the problems they actually experience in their daily lives.
Issues like storing value and transacting in a stable unit of currency.
I'm sure Argentinians would take actual US Dollars if they could get them, but they are in short supply due to their high demand.
For context, the last time I was in Argentina in the Fall of 2022, US Dollars cost around twice as much on the black market compared to the official Argentinian government exchange rate.
It turns out that Bitcoin doesn't do that good of a job of storing value or facilitating transactions, but the US Dollar does.
Now don't get me wrong, dollar devaluation is a very real thing and can be significantly detrimental to your portfolio in the long run.
But for people who have to live with the cost of food changing from the moment they sit down to eat vs the moment they go to pay, the US Dollar seems as stable as a concrete pillar.
Bitcoin is very volatile making it a great speculative asset.
People have, and I suspect will continue to, make a lot of money by holding it.
But don't fall into the trap that Bitcoin maximalists have of thinking that it will solve the world's problems.
It won't.
But it could solve your problems if it goes up in value.
I want to conclude this piece by outlining my not-so-genius method of understanding Bitcoin price movements.
Follow the macroeconomic conditions, dude!
The reason I am diminutive of my own analytical framework is because it doesn't take a genius to see that this is how it works.
What's the canary in the coal mine for Bitcoin price?
Easy access to liquidity driven by interest rate decreases.
It moves like this because it is a speculative asset and not a store of value, and follows the price of other speculative assets in something approximating lock step.
Make money on it when you can, but don't think you're changing the world by doing so. ~ West
Pick A Side And Fight For It, Keep Your Head Down, Or Flee
“Now I think the risk of some form of civil war is uncomfortably more than 50 percent, and I am confident that in the next year we will know the answer to whether we will cross the brink.” — Ray Dalio (LinkedIn)
Ray Dalio predicts the end of democracy.
Well, at least that’s the sensational headline you’re going to see, but, to be fair, Dalio is concerned. Very concerned, in fact. Perhaps rightfully so. The article is worth a read, especially if you’re unfamiliar with his overall “internal disorder” thesis.
Highlighting the current political polarization and how little people know about the movements they’re fighting for, here’s a gem:
If you are not knowledgeable about what fascism is (a dictatorship of the hard right) and what communism really is (a dictatorship of the hard left), I urge you to get schooled because if you have to make choices, it’s important to really understand them.
Dalio’s advice? Be prepared to make difficult choices about how to navigate the current climate. As the title of the article implies, this might involve deciding whether to engage actively in political or social causes, keep a low profile to avoid conflict, or consider relocating if the situation deteriorates significantly.
As you can imagine, we don’t recommend picking sides and fighting, which, in my mind, leaves the two prudent courses of action that are inline with our approach: keep your head down and have a plan B.
I’ll leave you with what I find to be the most important passage:
While historians assign dates to the beginnings and ends of civil wars, they are arbitrary. The truth is that almost no one at the time knows that a civil war has begun or that it has ended, but they know when they are in them. For example, many historians have designated July 14, 1789, as the day the French Revolution began because a mob stormed an armory and prison called the Bastille. But nobody at the time thought it was the beginning of the French Revolution or had any idea how terribly brutal that civil war and revolution would become.
Point being that we can’t predict the future, but we can prepare for whatever outcome we might face. And I’d argue that the timeline for preparation is shorter than any time in recent memory.
We don’t know what specific event might cause the inevitable catastrophic destabilization of our current system, but we are certainly seeing the hallmarks of increasing political polarization and financial instability that are characteristic of the latter stages of the internal order-disorder cycle. ~ Zack
This Bill Gates-Backed Startup Is Making 'Butter' From CO2 Instead of Cows
San Jose, California-based startup Savor uses a thermochemical process to create a fatty rich spread similar to butter, using just carbon dioxide, heat, hydrogen, and oxygen. The company pulls CO2 from air and hydrogen from water, then heats and oxidizes them to form fat. The creation is earning a lot of attention, especially from Gates, a self-identified animal fat aficionado. (Inc.)
Let them eat carbon.
It’s no secret the next pseudo-religious crusade will be against CO₂, with the masses self-flagellating and the high priests of the WEF granting themselves indulgences.
That’s already happening, of course, but we’re still in the early stages.
The media machine is fatigued on yesterday’s social justice movements and is currently focusing on the election, but this summer’s heatwave will no doubt create a breeding ground for pushing climate change and greenwashed initiatives.
And glory be, not only do our globalist utopian saviors (to quote JP) want to tax our carbon usage… now they simply want us to eat carbon.
That’s right, Savor, a startup that’s receiving investment from none other than Bill Gates, is synthesizing a butter substitute (and soon all sorts of meat and dairy abominations) from a “thermochemical process.”
Yum!
Want to know what’s in this stuff? Good luck. I’ve scoured their site, newsletter, and even their research paper, and the focus is not on whether their carbon dioxide-based fat replacement is healthy (in fact, there’s almost nothing on the composition of the product itself), but on the dangerous greenhouse gas emissions of conventional agriculture.
Now, I’m not a nutritionist, but ultra-processed bullsh*t is just that… ultra-processed bullsh*t. Fat is an essential macro-nutrient and, of course, there are good fats and there are bad fats. Typically, the more processed a fat (think highly refined seed oils), the more inflammatory it becomes, which leads to all sorts of averse health outcomes.
So perk your ears up for ultra-processed garbage like this being pushed as a “green” alternative, because this is going to become the new trend. ~ Zach
Hand of the King
Power is one helluva drug.
If you are a fan of the hit HBO series Game of Thrones then you are likely also familiar with the spinoff-series House of the Dragon, which recently premiered its second season.
I started watching the new season and quickly realized that I had forgotten the events of the first season (the family tree in particular is, errrrrr, complicated).
So I went back and re-watched it, which got me thinking...
The thing that people are drawn to about the Game of Thrones universe, aside from the high-production quality and epic medieval-style swordplay, is that the show is ultimately about power.
People are drawn to power. Power is one of the greatest drugs.
We innately understand that having in-depth knowledge of power will lead to an increased ability for us to have agency in our own lives.
Who has power in a kingdom, though?
Well, presumably the king.
But it's not that simple.
The characteristics that make a good figurehead for a regime aren't necessarily the same qualities that make for a good player in the game of power.
This is doubly true when the sole criteria for kingship is genetic lineage.
An upbringing in the good life doesn't translate well to the cunning that must be exhibited to further the objectives of a kingdom.
In House of the Dragon, the Hand of the King is the power player behind the scenes who pulls the strings to make things happen (Otto Hightower is the best character in House of the Dragon—I will die on this hill!).
This was often true in historical power structures as well.
By the late Ottoman Empire, the decadence of Sultans had reached such extremes that they had to rely on Viziers to actually run the show (and locking Sultans in a cage for their entire adult lives probably didn't help!)
The Tokugawa's had the Emperor and also the Shogun.
During various points in medieval France, the Mayor of Palaces held more power than the king himself.
But we're so separated from those primitive power structures in our modern enlightened era of democracy though, right?
Everyone knows that just because someone is a relative to a king, they aren't necessarily equipped for the challenges of rulership.
Maybe everyone knows that now, but the number of American dynastic families seems more than coincidental.
The Kennedys, the Clintons, the Bushes, etc.
Perhaps we're not as far removed from those medieval power structures of the past as we'd like to think.
The recent revelation of King Biden's cognitive decline has left Americans, and many others around the world, asking questions that until recently we assumed were reserved for the pages of history books and fantasy novels.
Who is our Hand of the King?
And who is next in line for the throne?
But it's good to remember that we aren't the first to ask these questions, and we won't be the last. ~ West
That’s all for today.
As always, be proactive about your health, wealth, and freedom. The future belongs to those who are prepared to think and act independently.
See you next time…
Sic semper debitoribus,
~ West & Zack
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